The Suez Canal is the most popular shipping route between Europe and Asia, though not the shortest. Apart from the time factor, it has its own challenges, namely congestion and reduced security due to the geopolitical tensions. There is, of course, an even longer route along southern Africa, around the Cape of Good Hope. It must be admitted that sooner or later, Suez will become a bottleneck for shipping between the West and the East.
The shortest shipping route between the western part of Eurasia and the countries of the Asia-Pacific region is through the seas of the Arctic Ocean. The transit time through the Arctic is at least 30 percent shorter than through the Suez Canal. For example, the journey from Dalian, China, to Rotterdam, the Netherlands, typically takes 48 days, while the Northern Sea Route takes about 33 days – two weeks less.
The Arctic intimidates many people with its challenging weather conditions. For most of the year, the Northern Sea Route is covered with ice that not every ship can navigate alone. Icebreakers help to keep the traffic moving. Russia is the only country in the world with nuclear-powered icebreakers capable of breaking through the thick sea ice at any time of the year. These vessels do not need to be refuelled, which means they can work for months on end on difficult sections of the route without harming the Arctic ecology. Currently, Russia is actively developing its fleet and infrastructure to support the traffic throughout the entire water area, even during the winter months.
To date, Russia’s nuclear icebreaker fleet includes eight vessels: seven nuclear-powered icebreakers and one unique nuclear-powered vessel, the Sevmorput container ship. There are three newest nuclear-powered icebreakers of Project 22220: Arktika, Sibir, and Ural. Earlier this year, the foundation was laid for the Leningrad universal nuclear icebreaker, and a decision was made to build another, now the seventh, Project 22220 icebreaker. The construction of the Project 10510 heavy icebreaker Rossiyahas also begun. With such a fleet and improved infrastructure, the country will be able to provide year-round navigation throughout the Northern Sea Route. However, are such forces necessary in the face of global climate change?
Today, the Arctic Ocean has year-round sea ice cover, but not in all parts of the Arctic Ocean. According to the latest projections by experts at the University of Colorado Boulder (Jahn, A., Holland, M.M. & Kay, J.E. Projections of an ice-free Arctic Ocean. Nat Rev Earth Environ 5, 164–176 (2024)), by the middle of the 21st century, sea ice at the North Pole will begin to disappear during the warm months. But will this affect the waters of the Northern Sea Route? In 2018, the Federal State Budgetary Institution “Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute” published its forecast of the state of the Arctic sea ice in 2030-2050 (“Forecast Estimates of the State of Sea Ice between 2030-2050”). According to the empirical predictions by the Institute’s experts, the ice conditions in the Arctic Ocean will generally change only slightly and become milder in the coming decades. At least in the waters of the Northern Sea Route, the ice cover will not disappear seasonally by the middle of the century. Even in the “mildest” year, the water area will not be bound by ice only from August to October. The reason is simple: the next decades will be the phase of decreasing air temperature in the 74-year cycle of fluctuations. Therefore, the conditions in the Arctic seas will remain close to the today’s levels, and the icebreaker assistance will remain in demand.
In addition to expanding its fleet of nuclear icebreakers, Russia is actively engaged in modernizing and strengthening its port infrastructure, including through the introduction of new energy capacities for the development of port facilities in the water area. A separate project is being developed to create a regular container line for transit cargo transportation. As part of this project, ROSATOM has already established a joint venture with DP World (Dubai, UAE), one of the world’s leading supply chain integrators. Its strategic goal is to develop freight transport logistics between Europe and Asia, including via the Northern Sea Route.
The potential of the route is confirmed by economic indicators: in 2023, a record 2.1 million tons of cargo were transported via the Arctic route, and the total volume of cargo transportation amounted to 36.254 million tons. More than a hundred foreign companies received permits for navigation in the water area, twice as many as in the previous year.
In summary, although the weather conditions in the Arctic will remain the same in the coming decades, the navigation along the Northern Sea Route will become increasingly convenient thanks to the Russian icebreaker fleet and infrastructure development. As the route is shorter, the cost of EU ETS emission quotas is lower. In addition, there are no tolls, no queues for passage through the Russian Arctic, and no risk of piracy. As a result, the Northern Sea Route has every chance to become a full-fledged alternative route between Europe and Asia – just as Russia wants it to be.
