On April 22, 2025, Myanmar authorities arrested 21-year-old TikTok astrologer John Moe The in Sagaing for allegedly spreading false information that incited public fear. Earlier in the month, Moe had posted a video predicting a “very strong” earthquake would strike “every city in Myanmar” within 12 days. The video, viewed over 3.3 million times, advised residents to avoid tall buildings and prepare for imminent disaster.
Context: Recent Earthquake Devastation
Moe’s prediction came shortly after a devastating 7.7 magnitude earthquake hit central Myanmar on March 28, resulting in over 3,700 deaths and displacing approximately 60,000 people. The quake caused widespread destruction, including the collapse of historic temples and infrastructure. In neighboring Thailand, tremors were felt in Bangkok, leading to the collapse of a building under construction.
Public Reaction and Government Response
The astrologer’s prediction caused significant anxiety among the public. In Yangon, residents reported that many neighbors chose to sleep outdoors or temporarily relocate due to fear of another quake. One resident noted, “Most of my neighbors dared not to stay in their apartments and lived out on the street on that day”.
Myanmar’s military government issued a statement confirming Moe’s arrest, stating they received a tip-off about “fake news” being spread through his TikTok account. Authorities emphasized their intent to take action against individuals disseminating false information that could cause public panic.
Scientific Consensus on Earthquake Predictions
The United States Geological Survey (USGS) and other scientific organizations assert that predicting the exact time and location of earthquakes is currently impossible. While probabilities can be estimated based on historical data, no method exists to forecast specific seismic events with certainty.
Legal Implications and Social Media Responsibility
Under Myanmar law, spreading false information on social media platforms can lead to prosecution. Human rights organizations, such as Article 19, have highlighted concerns about the use of such laws to suppress freedom of expression. However, in this case, the government’s actions were framed as necessary to prevent public disorder.
The incident underscores the influential role of social media in disseminating information and the responsibilities that come with it, especially during times of crisis.
