A ceasefire has been brokered between Israel and Iran after a tense 12-day conflict that involved airstrikes, missile barrages, and regional escalation. The agreement, facilitated through U.S. and Qatari diplomacy, brings a tentative pause but remains fragile.
U.S.-Brokered Truce Takes Effect
According to former U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel has agreed to Trump’s ceasefire proposal—prompted by Iranian strikes on a U.S. base in Qatar—signalling Israel had achieved its objectives and would stand down if Iran ceased hostilities. Trump announced the ceasefire via social media, crediting “back-channel diplomacy via Qatar” for success.
Iran Agrees Tentatively, With Caveats
Though Israel declared the truce “complete and total,” Iran’s foreign minister clarified it was conditional—stopping its strikes only if Israel did likewise. State-run Press TV confirmed the ceasefire had begun, but reiterated their readiness to respond if hostilities resumed .
Initial Hostilities Cease, But Tensions Linger
Missile and drone exchanges persisted even after the truce was announced, with explosions heard in Tehran and air-raid sirens in Israel. Trump expressed disappointment, claiming both nations violated the ceasefire. Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz stated he had ordered “intense strikes” on Tehran, citing Iranian violations.
Market Reactions and Regional Impact
Markets responded swiftly: oil prices dropped—Brent crude fell over 3.4%—and U.S. stock futures rallied on optimism about easing oil transport risk. Insurance and shipping costs in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman are expected to normalize if the ceasefire holds.
Fragile Peace: What Comes Next?
- Ceasefire enforcement: Both sides face pressure to uphold the agreement, though multiple breaches within hours highlight its vulnerability .
- U.S. and Qatar diplomacy: Trump and Qatari mediators are expected to monitor and reinforce the truce, with ongoing diplomatic activity to prevent future flare-ups.
- Nuclear negotiations: With momentum slowed, the fate of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and future talks—currently paused—hang in the balance.
Final Outlook: Tentative Calm, Heightened Stakes
While both sides have halted major offensive actions, continued military activity and unverified claims of violations show the ceasefire remains precarious. The agreement buys a pause, not peace—rendering diplomatic follow-up and security assurances critical for lasting stability.
