Trump’s Announcement: What He Said
On October 15, 2025, former U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had personally assured him that India would stop buying oil from Russia. Trump described this as “a big step” and stated that while the change would not occur instantaneously, it would be carried out “within a short period of time.”
Trump also revealed plans to press other major buyers of Russian oil—especially China—to follow India’s lead. In reaction to his statement, oil prices rose by about 1%, with markets interpreting the claim as a potentially significant shift in global energy flows.
India’s Response and Strategic Imperatives
India Stresses Energy Security and Consumer Interest
As the U.S. claim made headlines, India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) responded cautiously. The MEA emphasized that India’s energy policies prioritize stable prices, secure supplies, and diversifying sources—not unilateral pledges responsive to external pressure. Though the MEA did not confirm or deny Modi’s alleged promise, it reiterated that purchasing decisions are “guided entirely by” internal objectives.
India is heavily reliant on Russian crude: in September, Russia supplied about one third of India’s total oil imports (approximately 1.62 million barrels per day) — making India one of Russia’s largest energy customers. Several Indian refiners, including MRPL, have expressed reluctance to abandon Russian supply sources because of the steep discounts available.
Economic and Political Constraints
Shifting away from Russian oil will impose both logistical and financial burdens. India would need to restructure supply chains, negotiate alternative contracts, and possibly absorb higher costs.b Politically, Modi and his government will have to manage domestic expectations, especially if energy prices or supply stability are impacted. The Indian leadership is well aware that energy policies carry deep electoral sensitivity.
Moreover, India’s posture of strategic autonomy has long underpinned its foreign and energy policies. Accepting external pressure to curtail Russian oil imports would constitute a visible reversal in that posture.
Global Implications: Russia, Markets, and Geopolitics
Pressure on Russia’s Oil Revenues
If India indeed phases out Russian oil purchases, Moscow would lose one of its most significant alternative markets—especially as European demand has declined under sanctions. That would further strain Russia’s energy revenues, a primary funding source for its war in Ukraine. Analysts view India’s possible exit as a strategic blow to Russian resilience.
Ripple Effects in Oil Markets
The sudden threat of a large buyer leaving the market sent prices upward. Brent crude futures rose to around $62.45 per barrel following Trump’s announcement. Energy markets remain sensitive to geopolitical signaling, especially where promises of supply shifts emerge.
U.S.–India Relations and Leverage
Trump’s claim also ties into his broader strategy to use economic tools and diplomatic pressure to isolate Russia. The U.S. had already imposed steep tariffs (50 %) on Indian goods, citing India’s Russian oil imports. By leveraging India’s energy dependence, Trump aims to convert trade friction into geopolitical alignment.
At the same time, a definitive shift by India away from Russia would redraw energy and diplomatic alignments across Asia, especially in relations involving Russia, China, and the U.S.
Assessing the Credibility and Road Ahead
The Gap Between Claim and Confirmation
As of October 16, India’s government had not confirmed Trump’s account. The MEA’s response was circumspect, emphasizing India’s own priorities without endorsing or rejecting the claimed assurance.
Trump himself conceded that India would not halt Russian oil purchases “immediately”—calling it “a little bit of a process” that would be completed shortly. That caveat suggests the commitment is more aspirational than committed in policy.
Possible Scenarios
- Partial or gradual reduction: India might scale back Russian imports over months, especially if substitution options are viable and cost-competitive.
- Maintain status quo under new terms: India could re-negotiate or limit Russian contracts rather than terminate them entirely.
- Full swing only under severe external pressure: Only if trade or diplomatic costs rise drastically might India fully exit the Russian market.
Signals to Watch
- Official statements from Prime Minister Modi or senior Indian ministers explicitly endorsing a cessation
- Moves by Indian refiners or state energy firms to cancel or renegotiate Russian crude contracts
- Changes in India’s import data over the coming quarters reflecting declining Russian volume
- Further U.S. diplomatic or trade pressure, or incentives offered to shift Indian energy sourcing
Conclusion: A Bold Claim — But Uncertain Follow-through
Trump’s announcement that Modi has pledged to cut off Russian oil imports would, if true, represent a momentous shift in geopolitics and energy markets. Yet the absence of direct Indian confirmation, combined with India’s heavy dependence on Russian supplies and the practical hurdles involved, means the claim must be treated with caution.
At present, the announcement functions as much as a diplomatic signal—part of U.S. pressure strategy—as it does a confirmed policy pivot by India. Whether it materializes into tangible energy realignment will depend on evolving strategic, economic, and political calculus across New Delhi, Moscow, and Washington.
