BEIJING — China’s population has shrunk for the fourth consecutive year, and the nation’s birthrate has plunged to its lowest level on record, official data shows, underscoring a deepening demographic crisis that could have profound implications for the world’s second‑largest economy and society at large. The latest statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) paint a stark picture of declining births, rising deaths and a shrinking workforce — even as Beijing strives to reverse the trend with pro‑natalist policies.
Population Shrinks as Births Plummet
Data for 2025 reveal that China’s total population fell to about 1.405 billion, a decrease of approximately 3.39 million people from the previous year — a faster decline than in 2024 and the fourth straight annual drop. During the same period, the number of newborns plunged to 7.92 million, down 17 percent from the 9.54 million recorded in 2024.
China’s birth rate — the number of births per 1,000 people — dropped to 5.63, the lowest level since official records began in 1949. In relative terms, births in 2025 were described by one demographer as “roughly the same level as in 1738, when China’s population was only about 150 million.”
At the same time, the number of deaths continued to rise, reaching 11.31 million, a figure not seen in decades. That means for the fourth year in a row, deaths have outpaced births, leading to a net population loss.
The Legacy of Demographic Policies and Urban Pressures
China’s demographic decline has deep roots that extend far beyond recent years. For decades, the country enforced a strict one‑child policy from 1980 until its final abolition in 2016, an intervention that dramatically reshaped family structures and age demographics. Even after policy shifts allowed two children in 2015 and three children in 2021, the long‑term demographic impact of the one‑child era has remained potent, leaving a smaller cohort of people of child‑bearing age today.
Beyond policy history, broader social and economic pressures have shaped individual and family choices. Young couples — especially in urban areas — cite high housing costs, education expenses, job pressures and limited support for childcare as major barriers to starting or expanding families. These incentives are compounded by cultural trends: marriage rates have fallen sharply, a trend that correlates closely with lower birth rates.
Government Efforts to Reverse the Trend
In an attempt to stem the tide, Chinese authorities have rolled out a range of pro‑natalist measures, though their effectiveness so far has been limited:
- Financial incentives: In mid‑2025, Beijing introduced cash subsidies for each child under a certain age, part of broader efforts to make child‑rearing more affordable.
- Social support reforms: Policies have expanded maternity and paternity leave, made early childhood education and daycare more accessible, and offered tax breaks for families.
- Unusual measures: Starting in 2026, China reintroduced a 13 percent value‑added tax on contraceptives such as condoms, a decision officials said could promote procreation — a controversial step that critics argue may not produce the intended demographic effect.
Despite these efforts, many demographers believe that structural conditions — not just shortfalls in policy — are driving the decline. With fewer young people of reproductive age and persistent concerns about the high cost of living, incentives must overcome deep‑seated economic and cultural disincentives.
Economic and Social Consequences
China’s demographic trajectory presents serious economic challenges. A shrinking workforce means fewer taxpayers and increased pressure on social safety nets, especially programs that support the elderly. As the number of older citizens grows, China will need significant investment in healthcare, pensions and elder‑care infrastructure — all while the pool of working‑age adults continues to contract.
The demographic shift also carries implications for broader economic growth. Economists warn that without a robust labor force, China could see slower productivity growth and heightened competition for workers in key sectors. This comes even as the country tries to rebalance its economy toward higher‑value industries and domestic consumption, a transition made more difficult by demographic headwinds.
Comparisons With Regional Trends
China’s situation echoes similar patterns across East Asia, where countries like Japan, South Korea and Singapore have long grappled with low fertility rates well below the replacement level of about 2.1 births per woman needed to sustain a stable population. By contrast, China’s current fertility rate is estimated at around one child per woman, a level that ensures further population contraction unless reversed.
While demographic decline is not unique to China, the scale and speed of China’s shift — from more than 17 million births in 2016 to under 8 million in 2025 — are among the most dramatic in modern history.
Social Attitudes and Cultural Change
Public sentiment reflects the difficulty of simply “reversing trends” through policy alone. Many young Chinese express ambivalence or outright reluctance toward marriage and parenthood, influenced by economic uncertainty, long working hours and evolving social norms. These attitudes, coupled with structural demographic imbalances such as a gender ratio skewed by decades of prenatal sex selection, further complicate efforts to boost birth rates.
Experts say that building a fertility‑friendly environment requires not just financial incentives, but also comprehensive social support systems, improved work‑life balance, and cultural shifts that reduce the perceived burden of child‑rearing.
What the Future May Hold
China’s demographic future is uncertain but unsparing in its implications. United Nations projections have suggested that if current trends continue, China’s population could fall dramatically by 2100, potentially dropping below levels unseen in generations. Such a shift would reshape global demographics, economic power balances, and patterns of migration and urbanisation worldwide.
As policymakers adjust strategies and families make deeply personal choices about marriage and parenthood, China’s story reflects a broader global phenomenon: the challenge of balancing modern economic realities with demographic vitality in a rapidly changing world.
