TOKYO / BEIJING — Chinese tourists, once a cornerstone of Japan’s post‑pandemic travel boom, have sharply reduced visits to the island nation amid a growing diplomatic row over Taiwan and Japan’s stance on potential military involvement in a crisis. Official data and travel industry reports show that the number of visitors from mainland China fell by nearly half in December 2025, a sign of how political tensions can translate into economic fallout for one of Asia’s largest tourism markets.
A Sudden Drop in Visits as Relations Sour
New figures released by Japan’s transport ministry show that the number of Chinese tourists entering Japan in December 2025 dropped about 45 percent compared with the same month a year earlier, falling to roughly 330,000 visitors.
China has been a dominant source of inbound tourism for Japan in recent years — with millions of visitors accounting for roughly a quarter of all foreign tourists and spending significantly more on average than other groups. The sharp decline last month, at the height of peak holiday season, has raised concerns in both tourism and broader economic circles.
What Sparked Beijing’s Advisory?
The downturn follows a series of escalating diplomatic tensions between Tokyo and Beijing tied to comments by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi regarding potential military responses in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. In November 2025, Takaichi suggested that a crisis in the Taiwan Strait could justify Japan deploying its Self‑Defense Forces, a statement that triggered strong reaction from Beijing.
In response, China’s government issued warnings urging its citizens to avoid travel to Japan, citing safety concerns and a deteriorating environment for people‑to‑people exchanges. Airlines also began offering free refunds or charge‑free changes for Japan‑bound flights, and major routes were reduced or cancelled.
Officials in Beijing framed the advisory as a protective measure in the wake of “provocative remarks” from Tokyo and a broader chill in bilateral relations — not just a simple travel recommendation.
Impact on Japan’s Tourism Economy
The drop in Chinese visitors has had immediate effects on sectors dependent on foreign spending. Retail, duty‑free shops and hospitality businesses reported declines in sales and reservations, as Chinese travelers are traditionally among the highest spending groups.
For example, duty‑free sales in major department stores fell sharply in December, contributing to broader uncertainty about tourism revenue growth. Meanwhile, forecast figures for early 2026 show that bookings by travelers from mainland China remain significantly down compared with the previous year.
Japan’s tourism minister, Yasushi Kaneko, has said that while the slump in Chinese visitors is noticeable, overall tourism remains strong thanks to record levels of visitors from other countries. He expressed hope that Chinese tourism would recover once tensions ease.
Broader Diplomatic Context
The travel fallout comes amid broader geopolitical pressures in East Asia. Relations between China and Japan — two of the region’s largest economies — have been strained by competing security interests, historical grievances and differing approaches to regional alliances. The Taiwan issue, in particular, remains a sensitive flashpoint, with both countries maintaining deep national sentiments tied to regional stability.
Experts warn that the tourism downturn could just be the beginning of wider economic impacts if diplomatic tensions persist. A sustained reduction in Chinese travel would not only affect tourism spending but could also influence retail, real estate tied to tourism infrastructure, and cultural exchanges that have historically helped build people‑to‑people ties.
Mixed Reactions Among Travelers
While some Chinese travelers have expressed reluctance to visit Japan in the wake of the advisory, others are reportedly still interested in travelling — pointing to a mixed public reaction within China. Some Chinese media and social media users highlighted safety fears and encouraged caution, while others continued to seek out deals and alternative routes for travel.
Analysts note that the political messaging from Beijing also shapes travel patterns. Travel agencies in China were reportedly asked to reduce the number of Japan‑bound visitors — a move that demonstrates how deeply government advisories can influence industry behaviour.
Japan’s Wider Tourism Recovery
Despite the setback in Chinese tourism, Japan’s overall visitor numbers still reached record highs in 2025, with more than 42 million foreign visitors entering the country, helped partly by a weak yen and strong interest from other regions.
However, industry insiders warn that the decline in demand from China — a traditional powerhouse for inbound travel — could weaken Japan’s tourism sector in the longer term, especially if sustained into 2026 and beyond.
What Comes Next
Markets and policymakers on both sides are watching closely as diplomatic channels attempt to ease frictions. Tourism authorities in Japan are seeking to diversify outreach to other countries and reduce dependency on any single source market, while discussions continue between Tokyo and Beijing to prevent further escalation and reassure international travellers.
For now, the downturn in Chinese tourism serves as a stark reminder of how geopolitical developments can reverberate through economic sectors, from airlines and hotels to small businesses reliant on international visitors. The situation illustrates the nuanced links between foreign policy, national sentiment and everyday economic life in an interconnected Asia.
