Policy Reversal in Response to Demographic Challenges
On June 3, 2025, Vietnam’s National Assembly officially repealed its long-standing two-child policy, allowing families to decide independently on the number of children they wish to have. This policy, introduced in 1988, was initially aimed at controlling population growth following the country’s reunification. The decision to abolish the policy comes as Vietnam faces a significant decline in birth rates and an aging population, raising concerns about future economic and social stability.
Declining Birth Rates and Economic Implications
Vietnam’s fertility rate has steadily decreased over the past few years, dropping from 2.11 children per woman in 2021 to 1.91 in 2024, below the replacement level of 2.1. In urban areas like Ho Chi Minh City, the rate is even lower, at 1.39. This decline poses challenges for the nation’s labor force, as the working-age population is expected to peak in 2042 and then begin to shrink, potentially leading to labor shortages and increased pressure on social welfare systems.
Policy Enforcement and Gender Imbalance
While the two-child policy was not strictly enforced nationwide, Communist Party members faced disciplinary actions, including loss of bonuses or expulsion, for having more than two children. The policy also contributed to a skewed gender ratio, with a reported 111.8 male births for every 100 female births, attributed to a cultural preference for sons. In response, the Health Ministry has proposed increasing fines for sex-selective abortions to curb this imbalance.
Government Measures to Encourage Childbearing
In addition to abolishing the two-child policy, the Vietnamese government has implemented various incentives to encourage higher birth rates. These include offering financial rewards and certificates of merit to families with two children, particularly those who have children before the age of 35. For instance, Ho Chi Minh City has introduced bonuses of approximately $118 for such families. Moreover, the government provides generous maternity leave and free education until the end of high school to reduce the financial burden on families.
Regional Context and Global Trends
Vietnam’s policy shift aligns with broader regional trends, as neighboring countries like China, Japan, and South Korea also grapple with declining birth rates and aging populations. China, for example, ended its one-child policy in 2016 and has since allowed up to three children per family. However, these policy changes have had limited success in reversing demographic declines, indicating that additional measures may be necessary to address the underlying socioeconomic factors influencing family planning decisions.
