Big deals in Tokyo
On October 28, 2025, Donald Trump wrapped up the Japan segment of his Asia tour with an array of headlines: a high-stakes agreement on rare earths and critical minerals signed with Japan, a surprise Nobel Peace Prize nomination, and public fanfare befitting a summit stage. In a ceremony at the Akasaka Palace, Trump and Japan’s newly installed Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi sealed a strategic framework to secure rare-earth supplies and reduce dependence on China’s dominant processing role.
The rare-earths pivot
The deal is significant: Japan and the U.S. committed to coordinated investment and policy mechanisms to bolster supply chains for critical minerals like neodymium, dysprosium and other elements essential to electronics, EVs and defence gear. China currently controls over 90 % of global processing.
The framework signals a tightening of the U.S.–Japan strategic agenda and a response to Beijing’s recent export-control moves.
Nobel Peace Prize drama
In an unexpected twist, Prime Minister Takaichi announced she would nominate Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize, citing his global diplomacy and recent efforts in conflict resolution. The gesture fed Trump’s longstanding appetite for international recognition and added theatrical flair to the diplomatic visit.
Public cheers, strong optics
The visit was marked with symbolic events: Trump praised Takaichi as a “great leader”, Japanese buildings were illuminated in U.S. colours, and business announcements followed with promises of Japanese firms committing large-scale investments into the U.S. Takaichi framed their meeting as the start of a “golden age” in the U.S.–Japan alliance.
But caveats remain
- While the rare-earths announcement is notable, analysts emphasize it is a framework, not yet a fully operational deal with all implementation details finalised.
- Trump’s Nobel nomination is symbolic — Nobel committees award on a different timeline and mere nomination does not guarantee success.
- Japan’s security, trade and economic relationships with the U.S. remain complex, especially in the face of both U.S.–China tensions and Japan’s own strategic calculations.
What’s next
Trump now moves on to South Korea, where he is scheduled to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The trip to Japan thus acts as a prologue — raising expectations for developments from the forthcoming U.S.–China engagement.
In Tokyo, stakeholders will watch how quickly the rare-earths pact is translated into action, and whether the fanfare leads to substantive change rather than symbolic diplomacy.
The takeaway
Trump’s Japan leg blends commerce, security and spectacle. Rare-earths cooperation adds strategic depth, the Nobel nomination adds theatrical brilliance, and the “golden age” rhetoric reinforces a pivot in U.S.–Japan relations. But as with many global diplomatic scenes, substance is still to be tested.
