Tourist Numbers Plummet Amid Escalating China–Japan Tensions
Chinese holidaymakers are markedly avoiding travel to Japan during the 2026 Lunar New Year holiday period, in a sharp departure from past years when Japan was among their most popular international destinations. The shift reflects a deepening diplomatic rift between Beijing and Tokyo over political and security issues, particularly comments made by Japanese leaders regarding Taiwan that have provoked official displeasure in China.
Japan has fallen out of the top 10 overseas destinations for Chinese travellers during the extended holiday period, with forecasts suggesting a fall in visitor numbers of up to 60 per cent compared with the previous Lunar New Year season. Hotels in major Japanese cities such as Tokyo, Kyoto and Osaka have reported unusually high cancellation rates — exceeding 50 per cent for bookings made by Chinese tourists — underscoring the dramatic impact of the diplomatic dispute.
Underlying Diplomatic Dispute Shapes Travel Patterns
The downturn in Chinese visitors to Japan is closely tied to a broader China–Japan diplomatic crisis that erupted late in 2025 and has continued into 2026. The dispute intensified when Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi made parliamentary remarks characterising a potential conflict over Taiwan as an existential threat to Japan — a statement that Beijing characterised as hostile and escalatory.
In response, Beijing issued travel advisories urging Chinese citizens to avoid visiting Japan, citing “safety risks” and alleged rises in crimes targeting Chinese nationals — though authorities did not specify particular incidents. Chinese government officials have publicly criticised Tokyo’s defence posture and reiterated opposition to perceived Japanese alignment with U.S. security priorities in the region, signalling a broader diplomatic chill between the countries.
Economic and Tourism Sector Consequences in Japan
The collapse in Chinese tourist demand has notably dented Japan’s tourism economy, which had been enjoying a robust recovery following the pandemic. Traditionally, Chinese travellers have been among the largest and most lucrative groups of foreign visitors, especially during peak seasons like the Lunar New Year.
According to hotel industry analysts, the drop in Chinese bookings has led to significant revenue losses for major accommodation providers and related sectors such as duty-free retail and transport. Retailers that once relied heavily on Chinese visitor spending — notably department stores and electronics outlets — have seen sales decline sharply.
Flight data also illustrates the disruption: numerous routes between China and Japan have been cancelled or scaled back, with flights between the two countries falling by nearly half during the New Year period compared to the previous year, as both market demand and airline schedules adjust to the slump.
Chinese Travellers Pivot to Alternative Destinations
With Japan slipping from favour, Chinese holidaymakers are increasingly turning to alternative destinations during the Lunar New Year travel rush, which spans about 40 days and typically involves billions of trips across and beyond China.
Countries experiencing heightened interest from Chinese tourists include South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam, Singapore and Russia. South Korea, in particular, is poised to receive a significantly larger share of visitors, with figures expected to be notably higher than a year ago. These nations are benefiting both from their geographical proximity and from comparatively more stable political relations with Beijing.
People-to-People Exchanges Persist Despite Official Discouragement
Despite formal advisories, some individual Chinese travellers and tour groups continue to visit Japan, citing personal interest and people-to-people connections as motivating factors. A minority of tourists interviewed by local media said they still value Japan’s cultural attractions and intend to travel there despite political tensions.
However, the prevailing sentiment in official channels and among many travellers remains cautious, with some Chinese citizens reporting reluctance to disclose Japan travel plans to colleagues or acquaintances due to perceived sensitivities.
Wider Implications for Regional Tourism and Diplomacy
The diversion of Chinese tourists reflects how geopolitical issues can rapidly reshape global travel flows. Tourism strategies that once heavily relied on inter-regional mobility are now adapting to a more politically segmented landscape, with governments and industry groups in Asia and beyond recalibrating marketing and infrastructure plans accordingly.
For Japan, the current downturn underscores the importance of diversifying its tourism markets; visitors from Southeast Asia, the United States and Europe are increasingly integral to maintaining overall visitor numbers even as Chinese arrivals wane. At the same time, Tokyo has signalled that it remains committed to dialogue with Beijing, even as both sides exchange pointed diplomatic rhetoric.
Looking Ahead: Travel, Politics and Bilateral Ties
Tourism industry analysts caution that the short-term slump could have longer-lasting effects if diplomatic tensions persist. Continued travel advisories, flight cancellations and political rhetoric may dampen Chinese outbound travel to Japan well beyond the Lunar New Year period, affecting everything from consumer confidence to airline strategy and regional hospitality planning.
Observers note that while tourist patterns are shifting, the deep cultural links between the Chinese people and Japan’s heritage — from food and fashion to historic sites — may persist as a foundation for eventual recovery should diplomatic relations improve. For now, however, the 2026 Lunar New Year travel season has highlighted how international diplomacy can ripple into everyday lives and holiday plans for millions.
