Security forces across Dhaka and other key regions have been placed on high alert ahead of a verdict in the “July Uprising” case against former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and two of her senior aides. The ruling by the International Crimes Tribunal‑Bangladesh (ICT-BD) is expected on 17 November 2025.
Hasina, exiled in India, is being tried in absentia on charges of crimes against humanity tied to a student-led protest in July–August 2024 that allegedly left hundreds dead.
Massive security mobilisation underway
- Paramilitary forces, police and elite Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) units have been deployed in Dhaka, her party stronghold Gopalganj and surrounding districts.
- A “shoot-on-sight” directive has been issued for those involved in arson or crude bomb attacks amid reports of over 30 bomb blasts and dozens of buses torched in recent days.
- Key transport links—including the Padma Bridge corridor and major expressways—are under tighter surveillance, with noticeably lower vehicle volumes reported as travellers stay home.
Why the climate is volatile
The verdict comes at a moment of heightened tension in Bangladesh:
- Hasina’s party, the Awami League, has called for a nationwide shutdown to protest the tribunal, which they describe as a “kangaroo court.”
- The interim government, headed by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, has banned the Awami League from participating in next year’s elections and is pressing numerous legal cases against its members.
- The tribunal alleges that Hasina and her aides orchestrated a crackdown on student protests, with UN reports estimating up to 1,400 fatalities in the movement.
Risks and potential flash-points
- With major roads and urban centres under tight security, a mis-step or spark could trigger widespread disruption or violence.
- The verdict may provoke immediate reactions: shutdowns, demonstrations or targeted attacks on state infrastructure and political opponents.
- The fact that the trial is in absentia and the accused are high-profile increases the stakes and the possibility of international attention or intervention.
What to watch in the coming hours
- Official release of the verdict by the ICT-BD and whether it includes a death sentence—the prosecution has requested capital punishment against Hasina.
- How rapidly state and security services respond to protests or sabotage following the verdict.
- Whether India will engage with Bangladesh regarding Hasina’s extradition or her protection, given her residence in India and the cross-border implications.
- The condition of the elections scheduled in February 2026 and whether the verdict sparks a broader political crisis or transition in Bangladesh.
The takeaway
Bangladesh stands at a critical juncture. A verdict in a high-stakes trial against a former long-serving prime minister has prompted a sweeping security response and laid bare deep political fault lines. The state’s preparedness is being tested not just by the tribunal’s decision, but by the capacity to manage dissent, protect civilians and preserve order in a moment of national tension.
