Climate change and El Niño intensified the hot, dry conditions behind Indonesia’s 2026 fires, according to a World Weather Attribution study of the peak fire season from August to October.
Researchers examined conditions in Java, Kalimantan and Sumatra. They estimated that climate change raised temperatures by about 1.6 degrees Celsius during the period, while El Niño added a further 0.3 degrees and reduced rainfall by about half, The Guardian reported.
Human-induced warming made the hot, dry atmospheric conditions about three times more likely, while El Niño made them five times more likely, the researchers found. The analysis assessed rainfall, temperatures and sustained periods of hot, dry air that can make vegetation more flammable.
A report by The Straits Times said the scientists also pointed to drained peatlands and called for their restoration, higher water tables and reduced deforestation. The fires were still burning when the study was reported, with nearly 2.9 million hectares of land affected in Indonesia in 2026.
